报告时间：2026年10月19日（周一）9:00-11:00

报告地点：雅言楼106会议室

主持人：周波 东北财经大学东北全面振兴研究院副院长、教授

主办单位：东北全面振兴研究院、科研处

报告题目一：A Balance Sheet View of Local Government Fiscal Adjustments

报告人：李戎  中国人民大学财政金融学院教授、博士生导师

报告人简介：

 李戎，中国人民大学财政金融学院教授、博士生导师，国家级青年人才项目入选者，兼任中国人民大学政府债务治理研究中心副主任。主要研究方向为财政与货币政策、宏观经济理论、地方政府债务，在European Economic Review，American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking，Journal of Regional Science,《经济研究》《管理世界》《经济学（季刊）》《中国工业经济》等一流期刊发表论文30余篇，主持教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目一项、国家自然科学基金3项、中国财政学会自主性研究项目一项、中国人民大学科研基金重大项目一项，出版专著两部，撰写内参多次获得国家级领导人批示。

报告摘要：

When governments control a large corporate sector, fiscal adjustment may extend beyond conventional budgets through firms under government control. We study this margin by using nationwide business registration records and a network based approach to measure the equity assets ultimately held by local governments and first document the stylized facts of their scale, structure, and evolution. Exploiting an exogenous shock that increased local fiscal pressure, we show that government equity assets expand countercyclically. The adjustment operates primarily through local government financing vehicles, shifting economic activity and financing from the private sector onto government controlled corporate balance sheets, revealing an additional margin of fiscal adjustment beyond conventional fiscal instruments. Our results suggest that fiscal pressure can shift adjustment and financial risk across the boundaries of the public sector, making corporate balance sheets an important part of both fiscal capacity and fiscal risk.

报告题目二：Education Policy, Family Migration, and Service Sector Growth in China

报告人：黄子彬  上海财经大学商学院副教授

报告人简介：

黄子彬，上海财经大学商学院副教授。主要研究领域包括劳动经济学、教育经济学与城市经济学，长期关注中国城镇化、人口流动及流动家庭子女教育等问题。研究成果发表于 International Economic Review、Quantitative Economics、Labour Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Comparative Economics以及《世界经济》等国内外重要学术期刊。

报告摘要：

This study investigates the impact of education policies on family migration decisions and service sector growth in China. Cities often restrict migrant children's enrollment in urban public schools, which tends to keep both children and their mothers in their hometowns. Using a shift-share design, we show that relaxing these enrollment policies encourages the migration of children and their mothers from rural areas. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates labor–housework time allocation, family migration decisions, urban sectoral choices, and children's school enrollment. The model reveals that education restrictions hinder female migration more than male migration, contributing to the relatively slow growth of China's urban service sector. This, in turn, affects household service prices and the labor supply of urban female workers. Counterfactual analysis predicts that eliminating enrollment restrictions would increase migration, labor supply, productivity, and GDP growth.